VanEck’s head of digital assets research, Matthew Sigel, expects Bitcoin (BTC) to hit $100,000 by next year, arguing that government debt burdens are propping up the asset.

Sigel delivered the forecast on CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia on Friday, with Bitcoin trading near $77,400 in a week that hit crypto from three directions at once.

Bitcoin Holds Its Ground Through a Punishing Policy Week

Bitcoin changed hands at $77,403 on Friday, up 1.26% on the day and more than 20% over the past month, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. 

The asset still sits roughly 39% below its record of over $126,000 set on October 6, 2025.

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That monthly gain arrived despite a rough stretch for risk assets. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, its first increase since 2023. The Bank of Japan followed on Friday, lifting its policy rate to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.

Crypto also lost its biggest legislative prize. The Senate rejected cloture on the Clarity Act by a 49-50 vote on Tuesday, stranding the market-structure bill. Bitcoin’s price held through the Fed and Senate decisions, but the on-chain picture weakened. 

The Argument Behind Sigel’s $100,000 Bitcoin Call

Sigel argued that over-indebted governments explain why Bitcoin keeps hanging in. He noted that volatility has fallen by half compared with four years ago, marking a break from the last cycle.

He also pointed to traders paying up for puts over calls and to the Treasury bond buyback program, which triggered heavy short covering. According to him, it reminded people that the calendar is “very much in your favor if you’re a bitcoin bull.”

“Very unlikely that policymakers are going to address this unsustainable fiscal dynamic, and then as and if liquidity eases, you know that would be a turbocharge for Bitcoin,” he said.

Conversations with advisors and sovereign wealth funds show institutional clients are all buying, Sigel said.

The $100,000 call is not new. Sigel floated that level in April and repeated it in August, alongside a $500,000 target for 2029. In May, he laid out a longer-term case for $1 million within the next several years.

From Friday’s price, Bitcoin needs a 29% gain to reach $100,000. The 2029 target requires roughly 546%, while $1 million sits about 1,192% away.

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Source: BeInCrypto