Bitcoin price rose 24.95% in August, and still trades 9.62% below where it started the year. The month was bought almost entirely by funds.

Everyone else was selling into it.

Why Did the Price Rise 25% in August?

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $3.52 billion during August, per SoSoValue data. Only five of 21 sessions saw money leave.

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That single month outweighs everything before it. Across January to July, the same funds lost a net $5.30 billion. August did not just beat the year, it reversed it.

The problem is what months like this have preceded.

Will the Price Crash in September 2026?

Twelve months since these funds launched have drawn $3 billion or more. Bitcoin fell in the month straight after seven of them. The average return in those following months is 0.13%, against 2.93% for an average month.

Seasonality points the same way. Bitcoin has closed August green only two times since 2020 (before this year), and on both the occasions, September fell 7.30% and 7.96%.

One thing argues back. The last three Septembers all finished higher, so September’s reputation as Bitcoin’s worst month is out of date.

Who Was Selling While BTC Surged?

Hodler Net Position Change, which measures whether long-term holders are adding coins or releasing them, stayed negative for the whole rally. It turned red on August 2 and stayed there for four weeks.

Then it flipped. August 31 printed the first green bar since July, at 2,044 BTC.

Large wallets did the same thing and have not reversed it. Addresses holding more than BTC fell from 1,963 on July 31 to 1,908, a loss of 55 wallets during a 25% rally.

So the rally was funds buying what holders and whales were handing over. That matters, because it means the selling side was working through supply rather than reacting to bad news.

Are Big Traders Still Betting Big?

Their futures book says yes. Bitcoin’s positioning divergence score sits at 21.2, with top traders holding 111 points more long exposure than the average account.

The reading is specific to Bitcoin. XRP scores 2.7, meaning no meaningful gap between top-traders and everyone else.

That confidence is also the risk. Binance alone carries $3.00 billion in long liquidation leverage below the price against $1.80 billion in short leverage above it.

Therefore, a small BTC price drop could hurt the price prediction more going into September, as it might trigger a long flush.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: The Levels That Decide September

Bitcoin trades near $79,108. Everything rests on $77,057, the floor this range has held since the breakout, because losing it removes support all the way to $62,207.

Upside needs proof. A daily close above $82,656 opens $91,719, and only a move through that level would argue the bull phase is back, with $100,782 beyond it. Volume has to come with it, and buying volume only began recovering between August 29 and 31.

Analyst’s View: The pattern says funds buy late, and August’s money arrived after a 25% move in a year Bitcoin is still down. Against that, holders stopped selling on the final day of the month and the largest traders are positioned long. Which side wins in this Bitcoin price prediction war will be decided by the tussle between the historical bearishness and the current bullishness.

Source: BeInCrypto