Bitcoin (BTC) gained more than 20% in five days, delivering the stock market’s average annual return about 140 times faster. The run then stalled at $79,500, just 0.6% short of $80,000.

BTC traded near $76,750 on Friday, up 6.6% on the day. That leaves $80,000 about 4% away. The daily relative strength index (RSI) sits at 84.64, its highest reading of 2026.

How Bitcoin Outran the Stock Market by 140 Times

The math is simple. Since 1928 the S&P 500 has compounded at 10.02% a year, dividends included, per New York University’s Stern School dataset.

Spread across five days, that yearly gain works out to 0.137%. Bitcoin did 20% in the same window. Call it 140 times the pace.

Low to high, the run reached 27%. BTC is heading for its strongest weekly close in two years.

Speed is not recovery. BTC still trades 39% below its record $126,080, set in October 2025.

Washington lit the fuse. The Treasury said on August 19 it would at least double its long-end bond buybacks, from $2 billion per operation to $4 billion.

The purchases cover 10-year to 30-year debt and run from September 9 through November 4. Long yields had just touched 20-year highs. Bond desks read it as a backstop.

Leverage did the rest. Bearish traders lost $1.06 billion in a day as short positions unwound.

Spot buyers showed up too. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) took $517.2 million on August 19, then $606.3 million on August 20. That was August’s biggest day, per Farside Investors.

Three Resistance Layers Block Bitcoin’s Path to $80,000

Friday’s candle opened at $73,027 and ran to $79,500. Then sellers took over. That high hit the rising trendline drawn off February’s lows. Bitcoin climbed it all spring. June’s slide to $58,000 broke it.

Friday’s rally returned to the line from below and failed. Old support now works as resistance.

Two more walls sit in the same pocket. A shelf at $79,427 capped May’s high. The round $80,000 sits just above.

Bitcoin’s current price has to clear all three. Support starts at Friday’s $73,027 open.

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Weekend Odds Favor Digestion Over a Breakout

Jamie Coutts of Helios Analytics weighed the jump against how calm the market had been. It ranks fifth since 2018.

He found 14 comparable moves. Bitcoin sat higher 71% of the time 30 and 90 days later. The median gain was near 10%. A random day since 2018 returned 1.2%.

The extremes run wide. A similar jump in April 2019 led to a 118.7% gain over 90 days. One in October 2019 led to a 23% drop in 30.

Coutts calls 14 examples a thin sample. His own significance tests came back short of proof.

His table prices the pain too. In the median case BTC dipped 8.4% below entry within 90 days.

“There is a wall of overhead supply at the low $80k range it needs to work through,” wrote Coutts, chartered market technician at Helios Analytics.

On-chain data leans the other way. CryptoQuant shows spot and futures demand positive together for the first time since October 2025.

A separate quicktake ties the bounce to MVRV, which compares price with what holders paid.

Analyst Darkfost put net new demand at a 2026 high of 25,000 BTC. That weighs new coins against coins idle over a year.

“BTC looking strong here. Rallies like this in bear markets usually signal the bottom is in. Might see a dip, but the bear phase is pretty much done imo,” said Ki Young Ju, founder and chief executive of CryptoQuant.

So can Bitcoin reach $80,000 this weekend? Possible, but not likely.

Weekend books run thin. Fewer large buyers trade Saturday and Sunday. Clearing three walls with RSI at 84.64 (overbought) takes size.

A slide back toward $73,000 would cool that reading without wrecking the week. Bitcoin’s longer-term outlook now rests on whether the low $80,000s give way.

Source: BeInCrypto