The Bitcoin price keeps stalling, and one overlooked force helps explain it. The stablecoins that fund crypto buying are both shrinking and moving less, the same setup that preceded Bitcoin’s 2022 crash.

Data from DeFiLlama and Dune shows the market’s cash pile draining just when buyers are needed most. On its own, that is a headwind. Pushed far enough, it has been a trigger.

How a Thinner Cash Pile Slows Bitcoin

Stablecoins are the cash of crypto. Traders park dollars in USDT and USDC, then use them to buy Bitcoin and other coins. When that pool grows, more money stands ready to buy. When it shrinks, buying power drains away.

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The record shows the drag. Since 2020, when the stablecoin supply was expanding, the Bitcoin price averaged a +5.2% gain over the next 30 days and +18.9% over 90 days. When supply was contracting, those gains shrank to +1.1% and +8.4%.

Both figures are still positive, so a shrinking pool does not spark an instant crash. It acts as a slow drag that takes weeks to bite, muting Bitcoin’s gains rather than erasing them. In short, Bitcoin still climbs when stablecoins shrink, just far weaker.

Those are averages, though, and averages hide the worst cases. When the drain runs deep and long, the drag turns into something far more dangerous.

When the Drain Ran Deep, BTC Crashed

That is what happened in one of the previous bear markets. Stablecoin supply fell 34% between April 2022 and August 2023, a slow, grinding drain, and the Bitcoin price collapsed 43% over the same stretch.

A mild squeeze had become a full liquidity drought.

Today the same pattern is forming, so far in milder form. Total stablecoin supply has slipped about 4.4% from its $321 billion peak in May, and Bitcoin has fallen roughly 19% alongside it. The scale is smaller than 2022, but the direction is identical.

The real question is whether this drain deepens. To judge that, it helps to look past how many stablecoins exist and watch how fast they are actually moving.

Stablecoins Are Also Moving Less

Usage is cooling too. On-chain data shows monthly USDT and USDC transfer volume on Ethereum peaked near $2.84 trillion in March, then fell about 47% to $1.5 trillion by May before a partial rebound in June.

The two do not track tick for tick. Bitcoin actually firmed in April and May before its June slide, so this is a backdrop, not a trigger. Still, fewer dollars changing hands means thinner demand, and the Bitcoin price now sits near $63,000, well below its January highs above $90,000.

For now, the squeeze looks more like 2022’s opening act than its full drought. The supply dip is shallow, and volume is trying to recover.

The pattern cuts both ways, though. If stablecoin supply and volume keep sliding, Bitcoin’s headwind could harden into the kind of drain that turned 2022 ugly. A clear turn back up would be the first sign the cash, and the buyers, are coming back.

Источник: BeInCrypto