Bitcoin continues to recover from its recent sell-off, but the market remains trapped beneath a major resistance cluster that has capped every relief rally since the June breakdown. While short-term momentum has improved, BTC is now approaching a decisive area where the next move could determine whether the recovery evolves into a larger trend reversal or remains a corrective bounce within a broader bearish structure.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a clear downtrend, trading below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both of which continue to slope lower. The recent recovery from the $58K-$61K demand zone has helped stabilize the price action, but the asset is still trading beneath the major resistance area between $64K and $66.5K.

It recently formed another higher low inside the broader support region, while the RSI has continued to print higher lows despite the weakness seen throughout June. This developing bullish divergence suggests that downside momentum is fading and that buyers are gradually regaining control.

However, the market structure remains bearish until Bitcoin can reclaim the $64K-$66.5K supply zone. This area aligns with previous support turned resistance and continues to act as the primary obstacle preventing a larger recovery. A successful breakout above this region would likely expose the next major resistance near $72K-$74K, while rejection could send the price back toward the $60K support zone.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a much more constructive picture. After establishing a base around the $58K-$59K demand region, Bitcoin produced a strong impulsive rally and pushed directly into the descending trendline that has defined the corrective structure since mid-June.

The asset recently swept the local liquidity resting above previous highs within the $61K-$62K region before encountering resistance near the descending trendline. This liquidity grab is important because it removed nearby buy-side liquidity and allowed the market to test a key technical level.

The current structure suggests that Bitcoin is attempting to transition from a series of lower highs into a potential breakout formation. A confirmed move above the descending trendline and the $64K-$66K resistance zone would significantly improve the bullish outlook and could accelerate upside momentum toward higher resistance levels.

Conversely, failure to break the trendline could trigger another period of consolidation between the $60K support and the $64K-$66K supply zone. As long as Bitcoin holds above the $60K-$61K support area, the short-term recovery structure remains intact.

Sentiment Analysis

The 48-hour liquidation heatmap highlights a notable concentration of liquidity above the current market price, particularly around the $64K-$66K region. This cluster aligns closely with the resistance zone identified on the 4-hour chart, reinforcing its significance as a major magnet for price action.

Importantly, the intra-range liquidity highlighted on the technical chart is also confirmed by the liquidation heatmap. The recent push into the $61K-$62K area successfully targeted nearby liquidity resting within the range, validating the idea that price has been moving between liquidity pockets rather than trending directionally.

At present, the largest liquidation concentration remains overhead near $65K-$66K, making it a logical target if buyers maintain momentum. Markets often gravitate toward these liquidity pools before determining the next directional move.

If Bitcoin manages to sweep this overhead liquidity and secure acceptance above the $64K-$66K region, it would strengthen the case for a broader recovery toward the higher resistance zones. However, if the sweep is followed by rejection and an inability to sustain prices above resistance, the move could simply represent a liquidity-driven rally before another test of lower support levels.

For now, both the technical structure and the liquidation data suggest that the path of least resistance remains slightly higher, with the overhead liquidity cluster acting as the most likely near-term destination.

Источник: CryptoPotato