XRP price rose about 2% to trade near $1.05 on July 2, but the buying behind the move is thinning fast.

Long-term holders are adding less, futures traders are cutting exposure, and momentum is flashing an early warning. Together they suggest the 2% bounce may struggle to hold.

XRP Price Rises, but Momentum Refuses to Confirm

The 2% gain came on lighter trading volume than the days before it, since June 26. When price rises while volume falls, fewer buyers are behind each push higher. That leaves a weak base under the move.

The XRP RSI tells the same story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that measures the speed of recent price moves, sits at 37.97, well below the neutral 50 line. Momentum is still soft even as price ticks up.

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There is a deeper warning. Price is printing lower highs while RSI prints higher highs, a setup called a developing hidden bearish divergence. It often signals that a downtrend is about to resume.

This signal is not confirmed yet. It completes only if XRP fails to reclaim its recent swing high (around $1.069) and the next daily candle turns lower. For now, it is a building risk, not a done deal.

The people who know XRP best appear to see the same soft setup.

Long-Term Holders Cut Buying by About 11%

The XRP news from on-chain data backs the chart. HODLer Net Position Change, a Glassnode metric that tracks the net change in the supply held by long-term holders, fell about 11% to 213.6 million XRP on July 1, down from roughly 239.3 million XRP a day earlier on June 30.

That drop landed even as price climbed. In short, the steadiest holders slowed their buying into the minimal strength rather than chasing it.

The data suggests these investors may sense a stall ahead. When conviction buyers pull back by double digits, rebounds often lose their footing.

Yet a weaker bid does not guarantee a violent drop, and the futures market shows why.

Futures Bets Drop 11%, Which Softens Crash Risk

XRP open interest, the total value of active futures contracts, fell about 11% from $865.52 million on June 23 to $766.32 million now. Fewer open bets mean less leverage stacked on the market.

The XRP funding rate, a recurring fee that shows whether traders lean long or short, also stayed negative. That signals caution rather than crowded long bets, which leaves little fuel for a sharp downside flush.

This actually limits the downside. With so much leverage already cleared out, a pullback would have less forced selling to fuel it. Any drop would likely be shallow rather than steep.

That balance of soft momentum and cushioned downside now hands the decision to a few key XRP price levels.

XRP Price Levels Turn Critical Now

The XRP price meets first resistance at $1.069. A clean daily close above it would invalidate the hidden bearish divergence for now and reopen the upside.

Real strength arrives only above $1.099, the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Reclaiming it would swing some momentum back to buyers and support a firmer XRP price prediction.

On the downside, $1.046 is the first floor. A break there exposes the psychological $1.00 zone, with deeper XRP support levels near $0.979 if selling builds.

Given the 11% holder pullback and the developing divergence, the bearish signal confirms if XRP rejects resistance and closes lower. The level at $1.069 separates a push toward $1.099 from a slide back toward the $1.00 zone.

Источник: BeInCrypto