President Donald Trump said the United States secured majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves.He announced the deal on August 28, calling it the biggest oil deal in history.

Brent crude, however, did not fall on the news. The benchmark instead climbed from about $88 to $90.48 by Monday, defying the deal’s promised supply boost.

The Barrels Are Reserves, Not Supply

The agreement gives a private venture a 100-year lease on 17 Venezuelan oil fields. The US holds a 55% stake in that venture, a US official told Newsweek.

Interim President Delcy Rodriguez said the fields hold proven potential of 65 billion barrels. She said the venture could draw more than $100 billion in investment.

None of that oil is flowing yet. Venezuela once pumped more than 3 million barrels a day in the late 1990s.

Output now sits close to 1 million barrels a day, according to OPEC data.

Rystad Energy projects production could rise only 17% by 2028. That growth depends on heavy investment in decayed infrastructure.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, offered this assessment to Newsweek.

“While the hope of lower gas prices sounds promising, it still will take billions of investment to get that oil.”

Why Prices Jumped Anyway

Brent had fallen from above $93 a barrel in late August. That slide tracked easing fears around the Strait of Hormuz.

However, Iran and the United States traded strikes over the weekend, reigniting the Middle East risk that had briefly eased. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard hit two US bases in Jordan on Sunday, retaliating for a US strike on Iran’s Larak Island.

Goldman Sachs pegged Gulf oil exports at 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, roughly two-thirds of pre-conflict volume. Iran and Oman also struck a revenue-sharing deal over the waterway, though Tehran said it does not guarantee a reopening.

Sunday night’s rebound looks tied to that same risk story, not to Venezuela. The premium that drove oil for months has not fully unwound. Traders appear to be treating the distant Venezuelan barrels as background noise against a live supply threat elsewhere.

Two things will decide where Brent goes next. One is whether the Middle East risk premium keeps fading. The other is whether Venezuela’s oil venture attracts the investment Rodriguez is counting on.

Source: BeInCrypto